Will it be a White Christmas in the UK?
resolved Dec 25

"The definition that the Met Office uses to define a white Christmas is for one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK.

Traditionally we used to use a single location in the country to define a white Christmas, which was the Met Office building in London. However, with the increase in betting on where will see a white Christmas, the number of locations have increased and can now include sites such as Buckingham Palace, Belfast (Aldergrove Airport), Aberdeen (Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen FC), Edinburgh (Castle), Coronation Street in Manchester and the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.

We also analyse the data from our observing stations around the UK to provide a complete picture of where snow has fallen or was lying on Christmas Day."


Market insipired by this one.

I'm not a UK resident, so I may need some help when deciding how to resolve 😂

I'll keep an eye out on @metoffice twitter when the time comes.

Resolves YES (metoffice twittter post)

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predicted NO

GG, it was not a white Christmas in Toronto but the canadian definition Calls for a bit more than a single flake ❄️🩵

predicted YES
predicted YES

https://x.com/metoffice/status/1739262275821731873?s=20 “Some snow falling across the Scottish high ground”

bought Ṁ100 of YES
bought Ṁ20 of NO

@pavf Is there a Met Office observating station at Creag Meagaidh?

The Met Office’s definition is that there has to be snow at one of their observation stations so it’s not impossible that it snows at Creag Meagaidh but doesn’t meet their definition!


predicted YES

@SimonGrayson I believe the definition specifies anywhere in the UK. The latest forecast also states "a white Christmas officially", so they seem quite confident.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

"we could even see up to ten centimetres of snow, so definitely a white Christmas for Scotland" https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

This and the definition of a White Christmas being so generous looks promising...

bought Ṁ300 of YES

Pretty dramatic front developing over the next couple of days, with a significant amount of snowfall forecast across Scotland on Christmas Day. Buy YES while it's cheap!

predicted YES


Whilst most will have a wet Christmas, snow forecast over the Scottish high ground will most likely make it an official white Christmas... ❄️


bought Ṁ200 of NO

Long range forecast is up on the beeb, Christmas is looking fairly warm even in the highlands. I’m bullish.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I've bet YES, but only because the definition of a white Christmas is so generous...

If there's a single snowflake in Aberdeen or Edinburgh then the Met Office will tell us that we've had a White Christmas even if most of us don't feel like we have!

Based on the source you provide and complementary sources, I bet no

  • Historical trends since 1960 state that around 50% of the years have recorded snowfall on Christmas at some weather stations in the UK

  • The likelihood of at least one weather station having snowfall on Christmas has been around 5% to 11%, and widespread snow cover is less common.

  • The general trend suggests a decrease in the frequency of widespread white Christmases due to higher average temperatures associated with climate change.

  • Finally, according to TheWeatherOutlook, unstable weather conditions in the UK have become calmer. Computer models for forecasting indicate there might be an influence of high-pressure systems, which is associated with calmer weather. If so, it could potentially decrease the chances of snowfall around Christmas.

Sources: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/snow/white-christmas



bought Ṁ50 of YES

This market is underpriced! Half of all Christmasses since 1960 have been white Christmasses.

Since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least 5% of the network record snow falling on Christmas Day. This means we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a 'white Christmas'.


predicted NO

@Fairfarm otoh this year is the hottest year ever

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