TLDR: If another similar blackout (such as the one from April 2025), happens before the end of 2026, it resolves YES.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Spain experiences a nationwide blackout affecting mainland peninsular Spain (excluding islands), that affects a significant portion of the country's electricity grid. Resolution will be based on official statements from Red Eléctrica (Spain's grid operator) or Spanish government sources confirming a nationwide blackout event. The market resolves NO if no such event occurs by the end date.

Background

On April 28, 2025, a major power blackout occurred across the Iberian Peninsula affecting mainland Portugal and peninsular Spain, where electric power was interrupted for about ten hours in most of the Peninsula and longer in some areas. Red Eléctrica bore sole responsibility for the incident owing to its failure to anticipate synchronous capacity requirements within the system, which resulted in the nationwide blackout. Inadequate voltage control was a central factor behind the blackout, with rising voltage contributing to a chain reaction that led to disconnections at generating facilities in provinces throughout Spain.

Spain lags behind other European states in spending on the grid relative to renewables investment. Its solar capacity has more than doubled in the past five years, producing frequent surges in generation that far surpass demand. Yet much of Spain's grid equipment was built and installed decades ago, before the solar rollout.