Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES for the bins indicating a time period in which at least one of my Latter-Day Saint cousins will be engaged. Resolution is based on my personal knowledge of my cousins' public engagement.

It does not matter if an engagement ends in a marriage or is for some reason called off. Any public engagement resolves as yes.

Example: If at least one of my cousins becomes engaged in the month of April, the

Corresponding bins for “EOM March and before” as well as “EOM June and before” will resolve to yes. If none of my cousins are engaged by EOY 2026, the final bin “After December 2026 or never” will resolve to yes.

Background

The median age for marriage among Latter-Day Saints is 22, though the average age has increased by about five years since 1970. Marriage is believed to be an integral part of every member's salvation in the hereafter, which creates cultural emphasis on marriage within the faith community.

Considerations

1. A high amount of my eligible cousins live in Utah, a location with a particularly high concentration of Latter-Day Saints.

2. A high amount of my eligible cousins are freshmen in college.

3. I will only bet on this to put probabilities closer to where they should be.