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@DavidChee sorry strongly disagree with this. The question species reliably estimated, but this is officially reported and hence likely a massive undercount. See the comment thread below for instance.
“In China, from 3 January 2020 to4:52pm CET, 30 January 2023, there have been 98,472,396 confirmed casesof COVID-19 with 111,539 deaths, reported to WHO. As of 29 November 2022, a total of 3,465,113,661 vaccine doses have been administered.” from WHO website—looks like fewer than 100k in 2022, 111k all time
@anne Other sources say they think 9k a day were dying by the end of 2022, meaning it would take less than two weeks to reach the minimum for a YES here.
@NickAllen Sorry, I missed that. I haven't seen any estimates coming from outside the country yet.
@Nostradamnedus Well, there's a lot running around among the folks who didn't believe that COVID cases could go flat for 18 months or whatever.
@Nostradamnedus they're around. See
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3.pdf
plus the references listed in it.
In here (https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/01/02/beijing-is-intentionally-underreporting-chinas-covid-death-rate-part-1/?sh=4a2e14db4352) it says The Economist estimates the following: "China is another story. Its official statistics understate the Chinese Covid death rate by 17,000% (according to The Economist’s model).
In fact, based on excess mortality calculations, The Economist estimates that the true number of Covid deaths in China is not 4,636 – but something like 1.7 million. " but the link is paywalled.
Anyways, academic estimates are out there. I'm curious to get your best estimate at 2020/21 deaths in China; it's critical information to betting this question.
@NickAllen I don't have an estimate at the moment, gonna wait and see if an academic consensus (or something close to it) emerges.