Background

Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, has been serving as the head of the Catholic Church since March 13, 2013, following the resignation of Pope Benedict XVI. At 87 years old, speculation about his successor has increased, particularly following recent health concerns. The selection of a new pope occurs through a conclave of cardinals who gather in the Sistine Chapel following a papal death or resignation.

The cardinals listed as potential successors represent different theological perspectives and geographical regions within the Church:

• Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70): Currently serving as Vatican Secretary of State, he's known for his diplomatic skills and moderate stance. He would represent continuity with Francis's policies, particularly regarding global peace initiatives.

• Cardinal Peter Erdö (Hungary, 72): Former president of the Council of Bishops Conferences of Europe, he represents a more conservative wing of the Church, particularly on issues like divorce and remarriage.

• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67): Currently Pro-prefect for the section of first evangelisation of the dicastery for evangelisation, he advocates for greater inclusivity. His selection would mark the first Asian Pope in history.

• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69): President of the Italian Episcopal Conference and a close ally of Pope Francis, known for progressive views and support for LGBTQ inclusion.

• Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke (United States, 76): An outspoken traditionalist who has been critical of Pope Francis's reforms, advocating for strict adherence to traditional Catholic teachings.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the cardinal who is elected as the next pope following Pope Francis's papacy, whether through his resignation or death. If the elected pope is not among the listed options, the market will resolve to any new answer that is added representing the elected individual.

The market will resolve based on the official announcement from the Vatican following the conclave of cardinals. If Pope Francis remains pope through January 1, 2035, the market will remain open.