I'm playing Pokémon Ruby on a Game Boy Advance, original hardware, no mods or overclocks or anything. I've saved in front of Groudon and am soft resetting to shiny hunt.
The odds of a shiny are 1 in 8192. I can turn around two reloads in a minute. I make that around 1.5% chance per hour of play of me encountering old mate.
I'm not playing 24:7 like a nerd, my primary playing is while rocking a baby to sleep, watching TV or on the loo.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ198 | |
| 2 | Ṁ38 | |
| 3 | Ṁ25 | |
| 4 | Ṁ16 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
I tried so hard, but to no avail. But this is not the end, the cycle starts again, please wish me good hunting on round 2! https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-i-catch-a-shiny-groudon-in-the-4fdc64d125b6?r=Tm9pdA
Updated the close date because I screwed it up on market creation.
Also wanted to clarify that my GBA does have a screen mod and aftermarket case, just in case that causes any upset when / if I share my success screenshot and people think that’s a relevant mod (it does not meaningfully affect my odds).
As of right now I’m still without shiny Groudon.
We can calculate the two-week probability of finding a shiny with two reloads per minute as 1-(0.985^14h), where h = hours played per day. I figure a low estimate for h is two hours and a high estimate is eight hours, which gives a range of roughly 35% to 82%. Do you have a rough idea of how much time you spend playing per day?
@evergreenemily two-ish hours most weekdays, more on weekends, though I don’t have a hard number. I’m also not grinding at 100% efficiency a lot of the time.