On the 26th and 27th of August, there will be the biggest survey of Loch Ness since the 1970s. Will it find Nessie?
Resolves YES if the exploration finds a convincingly likely explanation for the Loch Ness Monster phenomenon, such as:
A pleisiosaur
Giant eels
sturgeon
Remains of any of the above
A submersible that looks like Nessie
Resolves NO if the exploration finds nothing that convincingly explains the Nessie phenomenon.
As there may be some subjective discussion of what a "sufficiently likely explanation" is, I will not bet on this market. I will take my guidance from the exploration, if they leave the impression that "this is unsolved, perhaps we will never know" then I will resolve NO, if they lean more "this is the most likely explanation, here's the evidence we found, probably no point searching any further" then I will resolve YES. If I'm not sufficiently convinced either way then I will poll Manifold as to how to resolve.
Close date is the end of the survey but I will delay resolution until the exploration announces their results.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-66393902
1,000
3.00The report is out! Skimming it over, I don’t see anything that would convince me to resolve this question YES. If anyone disagrees then please sound off before tomorrow morning when I plan to resolve NO. https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1DevhjZ48gSed3NYkJGGxISjU-2DteRUt/mobilepresent?pli=1&slide=id.p1&fbclid=IwAR38CenHwL2lcxQGSsd4ih9ySSEAFk5Gm1hY30eBLD4lzKci47ZUjseWnJs
@Noit yeah, there is nothing at all in it ... was a null finding other than a 'mysterious sound' that they conveniently never recorded and which they admit might be from many mundane sources
Report will be out “next week at some stage”. Rather than extend piecemeal I’ll push back closure to the weekend after next, and will resolve when the report is published. https://www.facebook.com/groups/470765477828717/permalink/822757335962861/?app=fbl
Looks like there’s activity into the night and tomorrow is a bank holiday, so I’m tentatively leaving it open for two more days with scope to go longer if they don’t formally announce outcomes on Tuesday. https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02aFrq3sfh1YvvizRUvY58FaJ4XsAvBjhkmgN3rXpoQh49Uu9dPN5N5UY42eSHd1gyl&id=100064363646738&eav=Afb_ktVpBQ5zOHaIXf_MqQleezTElDPvr5zWs_xzpFBvGaXdp8JYMNe0ws22aWUR3mU&paipv=0
I don't know anything about loch ness, or whether there are in fact sturgeon or some other sort of large fish within them, but any satisfactory explanation for nessie would need to be unique to loch ness. People aren't confusing random sturgeon in other lakes for distant relatives of the loch ness monster.
If the expedition only finds something super vague or nonspecific, like that there are large fish of some common type that could conceivably be confused for a monster if the observer was drunk or had bad eyesight, I think this should still resolve NO.
@Dach I rather suspect that if they find totally normal fish are setting off volunteer’s “Nessie alarm” the exploration will discount them to maintain the mystique. But if it turns out there are slightly larger than normal fish and their behaviour clearly explains many of the various accounts over the years (many of which are of dubious quality) and the exploration says “yup, that’s Nessie “ I don’t see that I’m qualified to disagree.
Great market! Don't have enough mana right now to bid it as low as I'd like but love learning about weird stuff like this.