Will a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?
11
71
1k
2028
25%
chance

Resolves YES if a top 5 smartphone brand by market share is available on sale with a crystal material discovered as part of DeepMind’s crystal structure work in any part of it's composition, before the end of December 2028.

Top 5 brands by market share are currently Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo, but I will re-review this when relevant. This restriction is to rule out hobbyists or other small-run shops pushing out something that may technically meet the criteria but is not widely available to verify room material claims.

The phone must be on sale, not just up for preorder, and in shops and not just a paper launch.

Crystal material must be a component of the phone and not the manufacturing process.

Close date is set so I don’t have to resolve immediately over New Year.

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Why did you limit the bet on "crystal materials"? Does this mean that if the GNoME tool discovers a superconductor and it's produced inside a smartphone the outcome of this market is still False?

@SimoneRomeo I was under the impression that everything discovered by GNoME was a crystal. Has it produced any non-crystal potential materials?

@Noit maybe you're right. All the materials might have a crystalline structure. I am not an expert.

@SimoneRomeo For clarity, this resolves YES if any material first discovered by GNoME is built into a smartphone, even if they release another tranche of materials.

predicts NO

Relevant information regarding the DM paper

https://x.com/Robert_Palgrave/status/1730358675523424344?s=20

Also have seen that Ceder lab reputation is not pristine among material science peeps, but that is more subjective.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@CamillePerrin Woops mixed two recent ML material science paper, sorry for the disinfo, please ignore this

Edit:Actually there are two papers, one focused on the ML and one with the actual synthesis, and both are claimed by Deepmind. The second one is the one the twitter thread is about.

predicts YES

@CamillePerrin

what makes you think this is the wrong material science paper? it passes the "5 seconds spent checking sources" test

predicts YES

@TheBayesian ig it's https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06735-9 vs https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06734-w, and they're both related to deepmind and published on the same day about the same topic..?

predicts NO

@TheBayesian Yeah I realized later there was two, and somehow assumed one was unrelated. My bad!

predicts YES

@CamillePerrin no worries, there sure is no way I would have realized that, good catch!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I don't really understand what this means, but I'm placing my bet on "cool things don't happen"

@Fion I think in this case the cool thing already happened. This is the “AI starts changing the physical world” stuff, but actually happening. You want new, novel materials? Boom, here is 45x more than humanity ever knew about. Have fun.

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