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MANIFOLD
What will be the average value of this market over its duration?
6
Ṁ110Ṁ41
resolved Aug 3
Resolved
54
The average will be computed on a time weighted basis, as opposed to volume weighted. So if the market trades at 40 for 3 weeks on low volume, and then volume spikes in the last week and the price goes to 60, it will settle to 40 * 0.75 + 60 * 0.25 = 45. Being early seems good! I will do my best to account for all price changes when settling. But if this is very heavily traded, I may need to measure the price every N hours (if there's not a good way to resolve this with the API).
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I'm surprised by how people are trading this! I expected it to get to either ~100 or ~0 by now
Where are limit orders when you need them :D
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