By How Much Does 2 Hours of Meditation Per Day Change Sleep Need in a Non-Blind Randomized Trial?
Basic
15
455
2025
18%
Cohen's d of d<0
43%
Cohen's d of 0<d<0.2
14%
Cohen's d of 0.2<d<0.6
5%
Cohen's d 0.6<d<1.0
20%
Cohen's d 1.0<d

Update: I just realized that the resolution criteria here have some ambiguity: I was asking the question with a mind to reducing sleep, but of course the values for Cohen's d here indicate I'm interested in making sleep longer. I will stay with the literal interpretation, where this market asks whether meditation increases sleep need, unless ~everyone tells me that they interpreted it as being about reducing sleep.

This is a market in a series on markets for possible quantified self experiments I might run.

Context here, in short: I will put up >10 of these markets, run the "best" one (my own judgment, but probably just the one with the highest expected Cohen's d), and a random one (resolving them to the outcome), and will resolve all the others as N/A. In all experiments, I will be using the statistical method detailed here, code for it here.

This trial will not be blinded. As such, even though I try to not form an opinion on its outcome, all kinds of subconscious biases might creep in. Sorry for this confounder while forecasting.

50 samples, 25 intervention (2 consecutive days of ≥2h/day of meditation), 25 non-intervention (no meditation), selected via `echo -e "meditation\nno meditation" | shuf | tail -1`. Expected duration of trial: 5 months, as I might not always find a 2-day interval in which I'm sure I can meditative 2h/day.

In general, I measure sleep need by the data from my Fitbit(slightly more info here).

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I recall hearing that monks who reduced chanting time needed *more* sleep. Just checked with my anecdotal source - it was a study reported in the 1970’s

Curious! The evidence I've found points in the direction of people who meditate a lot needing far less sleep: http://niplav.site/increasing#Meditation, especially Kaul et al. 2013.

I think we agree actually!

Less chanting - need more sleep.

More meditation - need less sleep!

I just realized that the resolution criteria here have some ambiguity: I was asking the question with a mind to reducing sleep, but of course the values for Cohen's d here indicate I'm interested in making sleep longer. I will stay with the literal interpretation, where this market asks whether meditation increases sleep need.

@NiplavYushtun Also, I bet on this market, which was a mistake and I shouldn't've done. I've sold my share. But I will bet on the markets for blinded experiments.