53% chance. Will there be a promise of a new playable race when the next WoW expansion is annoucened. This is just about the annoucement, if they fail to deliver on it when the expansion launches the market will still resolve yes. Allied races will count. Something like the dracthyr count (even if they only support one class). New very different customizations for existing races does not count, it has to be an entirely new race. If they do something ambiguous like getting rid of distinct races and it is a big hodgepodge you can customize anything from this market will resolve N/A. This market will close a day after the annoucement is made. By annoucment I mean when they release details about new features are coming. If they just give us a name of the expansion that doesn't count and we'll keep waiting until they give us the big features coming. A new playable race is big enough that I expect it to be in the first wave of annoucment features, not burried in dev interviews that come out a week later. Edit: The next expansion is rumoured to be annouced at Blizzcon which is Nov 3-4th. I've updated the close date to then as that is likely when we'll hear the asnwer. If no annoucement is made during the conference I'll move back the closing date.