Context in comments here: https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-isaacking-continue-to-spam-und
Resolves to final result at closing time.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ61 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ13 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
withouth having met @johnleoks (and without having met @IsaacKing, either) i would choose @IsaacKing as one of bigger jerks (as he likes that attribute, i think)
@AllanLacy As of right now, @johnleoks is still spamming in every one of @IsaacKing s posts, but Isaac doesn't. I feel you're chasing the wrong horse lmao
@AllanLacy I'm a little confused by what you're saying; do you believe that I want people to think I'm a jerk?
@IsaacKing at first I thought the whole thing was a joke, not a real beef between you and John.
Having said that, maybe "jerk" is a strong word, but if we replace it with something less offensive, I would definitely answer YES to that.
@tailcalled I bought Isaac not because he is the bigger jerk, but because it was a good price relative to their jerkitude ratio.
@IsaacKing I wish Manifold had a feature where you could set a market to close in a specific time interval with a uniform distribution, so as to disincentivize people sniping it last minute
@Nikola Maybe it should use an exponential distribution rather than a uniform distribution since an exponential distribution is memoryless.
@Nikola You could always simulate that yourself.
A lot of previous experiments have been done on Manifold about self-resolving markets like it sounds like you'd like this to be; may be worth looking into them.
My recommendation would be to resolve markets like this to a vote among traders. That's much harder to game.
@IsaacKing How would you suggest that vote be organized? I could just check how MANY people are betting on yes/no, regardless of how much they bet, right? Then the only way to make a last minute snipe would be to have an army of accounts.
@NiklasWiklander That doesn't really make sense. If I believe that option A is 10% likely and option B is 90% likely, but option A is currently at only 7%, I'd buy shares of option A.
Also, there's a general expectation on Manifold that bets don't have to reflect one's true beliefs.
An actual vote would be more reliable.