No whales

withouth having met @johnleoks (and without having met @IsaacKing, either) i would choose @IsaacKing as one of bigger jerks (as he likes that attribute, i think)

@AllanLacy As of right now, @johnleoks is still spamming in every one of @IsaacKing s posts, but Isaac doesn't. I feel you're chasing the wrong horse lmao

@AllanLacy I'm a little confused by what you're saying; do you believe that I want people to think I'm a jerk?

@IsaacKing at first I thought the whole thing was a joke, not a real beef between you and John.

Having said that, maybe "jerk" is a strong word, but if we replace it with something less offensive, I would definitely answer YES to that.

I didn't think it was a real jerk competition 🤣

@AllanLacy Interesting. What gives you that impression?

You know this is gonna get sniped last minute, right? :)

Just for the record I bought Isaac not because I think he is the bigger jerk but because I find the case for it getting sniped compelling.

@tailcalled I sold Isaac because I don't want to get sniped

@Nikola sorry, I sold john**

@tailcalled I bought Isaac not because he is the bigger jerk, but because it was a good price relative to their jerkitude ratio.

@IsaacKing I wish Manifold had a feature where you could set a market to close in a specific time interval with a uniform distribution, so as to disincentivize people sniping it last minute

@Nikola Maybe it should use an exponential distribution rather than a uniform distribution since an exponential distribution is memoryless.

@tailcalled "exponential distribution is memoryless" so true bestie

@Nikola You could always simulate that yourself.

A lot of previous experiments have been done on Manifold about self-resolving markets like it sounds like you'd like this to be; may be worth looking into them.

My recommendation would be to resolve markets like this to a vote among traders. That's much harder to game.

@IsaacKing How would you suggest that vote be organized? I could just check how MANY people are betting on yes/no, regardless of how much they bet, right? Then the only way to make a last minute snipe would be to have an army of accounts.

@NiklasWiklander That doesn't really make sense. If I believe that option A is 10% likely and option B is 90% likely, but option A is currently at only 7%, I'd buy shares of option A.

Also, there's a general expectation on Manifold that bets don't have to reflect one's true beliefs.

An actual vote would be more reliable.