9/30/24 update: WOTC has announced they are now responsible for the Commander format:
https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/announcements/on-the-future-of-commander
The announcement indicates that this was in partnership with the rules committee, so I am counting it as an announcement that the CRC is no longer responsible for the ban list. As such, any changes by WOTC to the Commander ban list will resolve this market YES.
The Commander Rules Committee recently published a controversial announcement, banning several popular cards:
https://mtgcommander.net/index.php/2024/09/23/september-2024-quarterly-update/
Will there be any other changes to the Commander ban list before the end of 2024? This includes retractions of previous bans.
Edge case things:
-If the CRC announces a change to the ban list before 2025, but the change does not take effect until after the start of 2025, this resolves YES.
-If some other entity creates a copy of the ban list, and changes it, that will not resolve this YES.
-An exception to this is if the CRC announces they are no longer maintaining or responsible for the Commander ban list, in which case, this will resolve based on the "new" official ban list, according to WOTC. If no such list exists before the end of 2024, this resolves NO (unless there has been some other change).
-If the CRC makes an "alternate" ban list (i.e. a cEDH specific ban list), this will not resolve based on the alternate ban list.
-An exception to this could be if it is unclear what the original ban list is. If the CRC unambiguously classifies one of the lists as for casual Commander, and one of the lists as for competitive Commander, I will only count changes to the casual Commander ban list; otherwise, I will count changes to either ban list.
-If a card is moved into some "new" category of banned (i.e. "banned as commander) or the rules for what it means for a card to be banned is changed and this change affects at least one card, this resolves YES.
I may bet on this market.