Will Pia Cramling win her match against Levy Rozman?

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resolved Nov 4

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Pia wins game 1!

+6%

Levy wins game 4!

-10.0%

Levy won the rapid section 4-2, and has a 4 point lead going into blitz.

-30.0%

If the result is tied after the games that are currently planned, and they play tiebreaker games, this will resolve to the result of the tiebreakers; otherwise it resolves NO. (i.e. because tie ≠ win). Also resolves NO if the match doesn't happen, is canceled partway through, or the results aren't publicized by a credible source. (I expect to use chess.com as a source.)

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Resolves NO, as there are not enough games remaining for Pia to overcome Levy's lead.

@Manifold

@SirSalty @Joshua @ian

Does Pia even have a chance she’s gotta win 4 and draw 4 just to get to a tiebreaker

sold Ṁ516 NO

Levy won the rapid section 4-2, and has a 4 point lead going into blitz.

bought Ṁ150 NO

Levy wins game 4!

bought Ṁ100 NO

I consider Levy a heavy favorite after the two classical games, even with Pia's great first game performance

Pia wins game 1!

Expected Score Based on FIDE Ratings:

Classical:

Cramling: 2429, Rozman: 2347

2.4 - 1.6 (7.2 pts to 4.8 pts)

Rapid:

Cramling: 2374, Rozman: 2284

3.75 - 2.25 (7.5 pts to 4.5 pts)

Blitz:

Cramling: 2276, Rozman: 2376

4.32 - 7.68 (4.32 pts to 7.68 pts)

Total:

19.02 to 16.98

@ChinmayTheMathGuy Levy hasn't played a FIDE rated blitz or rapid game since before 2020, so those ratings probably aren't going to be super predictive.

Sweepified!

I had also put up a market for this - arbitrage opportunity https://manifold.markets/ADings/what-will-be-the-result-of-the-ches

@ADings yeah, I made this for sweeps

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