Background China is currently experiencing a surge in hospitalizations primarily attributed to human metapneumovirus (HMPV), along with influenza A and mycoplasma pneumoniae. Meanwhile, the US is dealing with a "quad-demic" involving different viruses: influenza, COVID-19, RSV, and norovirus.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if a major US news outlet publishes a headline between January 4, 2024, and March 4, 2024, that specifically attributes hospital crowding in the United States to human metapneumovirus (HMPV) as the primary cause. The headline must explicitly connect the US hospital situation to the same virus affecting Chinese hospitals.

The market will resolve NO if:

• No such headline appears by March 4, 2024

• Headlines attribute US hospital crowding to multiple viruses or different viruses

• Headlines mention HMPV but don't specifically link it to hospital crowding

Considerations

• Current US hospital capacity issues are being attributed to multiple viruses rather than a single pathogen

• The timing spans winter months when respiratory illnesses typically peak in the US

• News headlines would need to shift from reporting on multiple viruses to focusing specifically on HMPV as the primary cause of hospital crowding