Will @itsTomekK remain trustworthy-ish until the end of 2023?

532

Ṁ24K

Ṁ670

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

YES

ALL

Tomek is regularly inactive on their markets, resolving them late or altogether missing crucial events that should trigger resolution. More often than not, their resolution criteria are vague. They create a lot of markets and trade actively but this has been at the expense of what one would expect of a trustworthy-ish creator.

Resolves NO if they lost their badge by then (even if it is later reinstated), YES if their badge hasn't been removed before the end of the year.

Update 11/9/2023: the moderator badge has replaced the trustworthy-ish badge. This change doesn't affect the resolution.

@itsTomekK is the user named Tomek K.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ303
2		Ṁ163
3		Ṁ105
4		Ṁ88
5		Ṁ84

17 Comments

25 Holders

132 Trades

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bought Ṁ500 of YES

Tomek was less active for a while, but that seems like no reason to take someone's badge away unless they like fully abandon the site for over a year. And they're active again now, making cool markets! Buying this up!

2 traders bought Ṁ5,020 YES

sold Ṁ84 of YES

@Joshua I always thought trustworthy-ish users were expected to be actively responding to things requiring their attention on their markets. Not like you had to check on everything within 10 minutes, but at least deal with most things within a week.

With the renaming of the badge to moderator, that may not be required, but it's unclear - I've asked Manifold about it and still waiting for an update.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@Joshua For a while there were resolutions that were long overdue but also some controversial ones (see below). That was the impetus for the market. Though like Jack I find unresponsive trustworthy-ish creators extremely frustrating. @Mira had (IIRC) some heuristic for dealing with counterpart risk on Tomek’s markets. It seems like those issues have mostly dissipated, so I’m with you.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

They’ve just made two more resolution mistakes.

They resolved their trump tweeting in 2023 market, but not the one about trump tweeting ever.
In their market about the first word of trumps tweet, there was controversy due to somewhat vague/contradictory criteria, which caused people to write in new options to snipe it and get profit. Tomek was made aware of this, commented asking for advice on how to resolve, but did not actually close the market. They still haven’t made a decision despite 5 days passing now, and has left the market open. People keep betting and trying to snipe options, and their profits are basically hinging on Tomek’s decision.

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr We use the term "Tomek Scam" to refer to trading resolution risk on Tomek's markets.

i.e.

Innocent: "This market obviously resolves YES. Why is Mira buying NO?"
Later: "Ahh, all my money's locked up for months, people are arguing in the comments, and Tomek said something confusing. Am I going to lose everything? I guess I'll take Mira's exit order at 80% and get out of here."
Months later: Resolves YES

predicted NO

@Mira This isn’t trustworthy behavior from Tomek.

you guys have too much free time, i wish i would 😭

predicted NO

I’m really confused by why they’re not resolving /itsTomekK/will-manifold-user-lexfridman-get-anow that the criteria are met. Honestly, I think badge revoking should be considered here - especially considering there has been a pattern of weirdly delayed resolutions.

@Conflux Agreed, I was going to bring it up here and was just waiting for a couple more days.

@NamesAreHard @Conflux my trustworthy-ish users thinking others are trustworthy-ish seems to have resolved early maybe - i'm creating an extension

predicted NO

@Conflux I'm not convinced that late resolutions == untrustworthy behavior. reliability is important, but we all recognize that there's some allowable difference between being here 24/7 and being here never. I think a lot of this would be less of an issue if there were more community-based resolving (whether that's an active trustwirthy-ish committee, poll-based resolution criteria, or whatnot)

predicted NO

@Stralor I would agree - but here it’s not just about being active. On the Lex market, Tomek has commented he wants to see more, but Lex literally has the badge. I don’t know what Tomek wants. Similarly with a couple others (the 1M profit one, I think there was another?) I expect the Lex market’ll be resolved YES soon, but it’s still weird.