Will any question in the next Philpapers survey get at least 90% agreement?
10
185
210
2031
17%
chance

Agreement = 'accept' and 'lean toward' combined.

The Philpapers survey tracks the beliefs of professional philosophers in the English-speaking world (broadly construed) on a range of questions. So far, no position has received more than about 80% support except for certain specific options, e.g. human beings are conscious, which I will disregard. Only positions that did not receive >= 90% agreement in previous surveys will count.

The last survey was in 2020. The previous one, which was the first, was in 2009. I don't know when the next survey will take place, but David Chalmers says it would be reasonable to expect it around 2030 (https://twitter.com/davidchalmers42/status/1637813483545690112?s=20).

https://survey2020.philpeople.org/

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In what sample? I see the 2020 one has "2009-comparable departments" population option. If such an option appears on the next one too (2020-comparable), will you use that one or the headline ("target") population?

I doubt it, but I wish I could write about performative ethics.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@MarkIngraham Put your money where your mouth is.

@NicoDelon I'm broke

@MarkIngraham Soon to be busted.