Resolves according to media reports. 'Seriously', 'severely', 'critically', and other cognates all resolve YES. Rider must be officially racing the Tour. Reckless means e.g. running close to riders, waving a flag, standing in the middle of the road, etc.
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1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ89 | |
| 2 | Ṁ35 | |
| 3 | Ṁ33 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
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Many crashes occurred, some caused by spectators. Lots of bruises and broken collarbones, but no severe or critical injuries as far as I can tell.
Good summary:
I don't have enough mana to play this but if anyone wants free money -- 27% is way too high, this should be like 1%. I'm glad I didn't play before because I had previously assumed a crash resulting in a rider leaving the race was going to count as a yes.
Just to help everyone else understand, a 'critical' injury leaves a person on the brink of death, with unstable vital signs and requiring close supervision and often life support measures.
Cycling crash victims from racing incidents are almost never labeled "critical" and based on the comment section so far they'll need to be in a coma for it to count.
Daniel Oss breaking his neck from a spectator last year -> not critical.
Vincenzo Nibali crashing and breaking a vertebrae from a fan on a mountain was not labeled serious, severe, or critical.
The Opi Omi crash knocked down 20+ riders and even Cyril Lemoine with broken ribs and a punctured lung doesn't seem to have been labeled as severe, serious, or critical.
@PelotonEliza Broken necks and punctured lungs are serious injuries. Bruises are not. But yes, the bar is relatively high.
@PelotonEliza thanks for the information, I fixed the probability. However, I left it only at 5% because I don't discard a media report using those adjectives wrongly, a headline like 'Rider severely injured due to spectator taking a selfie' where actually it was "just" a broken collarbone
I’m on the fence with this incident involving Cras. His injuries seem relatively benign, though he was sent to a hospital. I’ve read a handful of reports, none of which mention a critical or severe condition. The spectator’s behavior meets the criteria.
https://news.italy24.press/sports/amp/683954
What do you all think? Maybe wait for another crash?
FWIW I don’t have a position in this market.
@NicoDelon Crashing out due to a spectator serious. They don’t get to race. They don’t get to help the team. Or continue their top 10 bid. Probably since serious isn’t defined…crashing out should be enough.
I doing have any M in the market.
@Iamczecksy The question is about serious, severe or critical injuries. I explicitly stated I would rely on media reports. Since none of those I’ve read mention such injuries, I can’t resolve YES. If anyone can find a report of serious injuries though, I’d be happy to resolve YES.