JuneJulyWill not hold his first rally in 2023AugustAprilMarchSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberCampaign rally = event related to the presidential campaign of the candidate. It has to involve a large crowd and last sufficiently long. I'll exercise discretion but mostly rely on press reports to determine whether an event is a rally.
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"DeSantis, who has a generational contrast not just with Biden but with Trump, begins a four-day swing through 12 cities in early states next week, his first real time in a race in which his candidacy has been mostly theoretical so far." https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1661699379298807809
Does a "campaign speech" count as a rally? https://twitter.com/ShelbyTalcott/status/1661688227843932160
@KevinBurke If that’s how it’s described by the press, yes. Not just a speech though. There have to be crowds and it has to last a little while.
@NicoDelon OK. The “Campaign Kickoff” on may 30 feels like it would meet those criteria
Parimutuel multiple choice feels bad for markets that don't close before the resolution criteria is known. Less prediction market and more whale it up on a sure thing once the resolution criteria have been met.
@NicoDelon I know there is an incentive to keep the market open for as long as possible to get engagement, but I think something like this might be more "predictive" if they were separate markets and closed a few days before the start of the resolution months in question and resolved at the end of the subject month.
So like, a binary Y/N "Will DeSantis hold his first campaign rally for 2024 in the month of June 2023?" closing the market some time in May 2023 and resolving the market at the end of June 2023. But that is a lot of separate markets and a lot of liquidity provisioning.
Having a Multiple Choice that closes early is less appealing because it stretches out the time between close and resolution if you have June, July, August, September, October, November, December, Not at all in 2023, then you could be closing some time in May and potentially not able to resolve it until January 1, 2024.
