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@higherLEVELING Wagner has been rebranded as Afrikan Corp. and that should clearly be enough to flip these markets.
@Shump They were already disbanded. All the arguments remaining is that they are still called Wagner. That happened two months ago. That is why I have such huge bets on these markets. Wagner was dissolved by Putin in an executive order. It’s over. But it operates a few businesses still in Africa as Wagner. That is the whole arguments against disbanding as it stands.
@Shump See my comment directly below. Moscow has seized Wagner. It’s only a name now.
@higherLEVELING It has already been acknowledged that the kid is running it but under the control of the Ministry of Defense. HUGE DIFFERENCE.
@higherLEVELING there is literally nothing but news about Wagner being disbanded. i don't understand just dismissing these stories.
@BTE don't they also have arms all over the world? This last article says "large elements of...", "this arm under...". It definitely sounds like parts are being assimilated and that's the way it's going, but it also seems unlikely that the whole thing will be disbanded in 6 weeks?
@Abraxas I think it should be about when the decision is made and effectively executed, not when it’s completed. We have no way of knowing when everything has been wound down completely. Last week people acted like Wagner was in Syria moving anti-aircraft weapons systems to Hezbollah, but turns out they were already long gone from Syria.
Wagner was completely pushed out of Syria. Still nobody has shared much evidence that Wagner persists. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/11/how-russias-redut-pmc-forced-rival-wagner-withdraw-syria
The WSJ video has a Wagner expert articulating the case for why Wagner's operations are being subsumed by the GRU and other PMCs similar to Wagner. I think Prigozhin was a great asset for Putin, maybe even too effective in some ways, and he was dispensed with reluctantly. The Russian government's official position is that Wagner has been incorporated into the army and the sole remaining argument for NO is that their African operation remains intact. I think this video is a strong case for the burden of proof shifting to the defenders of NO because as has been noted elsewhere, Wagner was never the type of entity that could be clearly identified as a corporation in the traditional sense, but it had the implicit support of the Russian state which gave it legitimacy. That implicit support is gone, there is no public facing heir apparent to Prigozhin, and they are taking the leaders of the alternative PMCs on an African PR tour.
It strains credulity to suggest this is anything other than an overt signal that Wagner is history, certainly at the very least has no meaningful future and is being "disbanded". Since we won't be seeing a formal declaration of dissolution, I am wondering what would be sufficient proof of Wagner being "disbanded"?
@BTE from 24% to 17% within 4 hours of making this statement
It strains credulity to suggest this is anything other than an overt signal that Wagner is history
@BTE Perhaps suggesting that you have some minimum level of consistency between your arguments and trades. If you want your arguments to be taken seriously.
@Akzzz123 WTF are you talking about?! Look at the positions in the market before you say stupid things. Are people who sell their shares for a profit inconsistent? Obviously not. If I sell at a loss is that being inconsistent? Nope. Now that you can’t argue with me on the facts you move on to calling me inconsistent…
@BTE I still think it's unlikely that Wagner will be disbanded by EOY but this is a great piece of info!