Will a US state legislature refuse to recognise the popular vote winner in the state in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Basic
26
Ṁ600Dec 31
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Yes if a US state legislature votes to give the electoral votes to a candidate who was not the generally recognised popular vote winner in the state or refuses to give the electoral votes at all.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
@NickHeinonen, you'll want to extend the market's close date to late 2024, it's currently set to end of 2023.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024?
57% chance
Will a US local election official refuse to certify any state or federal election results in 2024?
72% chance
Will a candidate in the 2024 US presidential election attempt to overturn or invalidate its result?
61% chance
Will the 2024 presidential election result be disputed?
60% chance
Will the losing candidate in the 2024 presidential election refuse to concede defeat?
25% chance
Will any new state reject winner takes all electoral vote allocation for the 2028 election?
31% chance
Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election also win the popular vote?
71% chance
Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election lose the electoral vote?
26% chance
Will the US 2024 presidential election go the way of the popular vote?
80% chance
[Metaculus] Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
66% chance