The "Advanced Clean Trucks" proposal has been approved and is scheduled to begin going into effect with model year '24. This initial rollout primarily affects drayage vehicles (shipping into and out of ports and railroad yards) and public fleets.
As California, so the nation: 5 other states have implemented their own version of the same rule as of question creation.
Industry and public organizations are concerned about the lack of available vehicles that meet the requirements, the lack of charging infrastructure, and a lack of cost projections associated with operating the fleets.
Will the new rule be successfully implemented as written when approved by the EPA in Spring '23?
The following sorts of events will cause a "No" resolution:
1. Delay or neutering of the '24 implementation requirements, including changes from "mandatory" to "incentivized"
2. Significant crash in new vehicle sales to the affected entities; sustained 25% or more, increasing the danger on CA's roads from aging fleets
3. Significant increases to costs of shipping into CA compared to alternatives
4. Massive snarls in affected shipping hubs, significant unavailability of public services due to implementation problems, etc.
Otherwise, a largely successful rollout with or without growing pains will resolve "yes". I'm aware that industry groups will complain about this heavily regardless of how successful the rollout is, so their complaints will be discounted in favor of hard data like shipping delays and cost changes.
This is somewhat fuzzy, so I'll refrain from betting in this market. Resolution will be on or before 1 Jan '25 so we can see how it plays out for awhile.
Links:
CA Air Resources Board description:
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-trucks/about
Notes on the rule:
https://mobilitynotes.com/californias-advanced-clean-trucks-regulation/
https://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/2022/10/03/the-advanced-clean-fleets-rule-explained/
1,000According to CARB, manufacturers have already exceeded compliance targets, selling ZEVs as 16% of total sales in 2023 (https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/documents/advanced-clean-trucks-compliance-and-incentives-update), noticeably beyond the 6% requirement for 2024.
This rule received its EPA waiver back in March 2023 (https://www.freightwaves.com/news/california-gets-epa-waiver-to-move-ahead-with-advanced-clean-trucks-rule) and is actively being implemented, unlike the Advanced Clean Fleets rule which California withdrew in January.
Through 2023, manufacturers generated 24,251 ZEV credits with a net balance of 18,514 - more than double the 8,100 estimated needed for 2024 compliance. For Class 7-8 tractors specifically, they had 1,675 credits vs. the 1,565 needed (https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/ACT-Credits-Summary%202023).
There have been impacts in specific segments, with truck dealerships in states newly adopting the ACT rule reporting sales challenges (https://www.truckpartsandservice.com/regulations/industry/article/15739858/truck-sales-decline-as-carbs-act-rule-reaches-new-states), the evidence doesn't show anywhere near a sustained 25%+ decline in vehicle sales.
Port of Long Beach data shows steady ZEV implementation (2.39% of moves in November), without causing major disruptions to shipping (https://www.freightwaves.com/news/battles-over-californias-advanced-clean-trucks-rule-rage-far-beyond-state-line), and no data indicates significant shipping cost increases specifically attributable to the ACT rule.
There's now a lawsuit in federal court over it: https://landline.media/californias-advanced-clean-trucks-is-unconstitutional-states-and-stakeholders-argue/