Resolves YES upon an accepted update to the following table on Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index#Largest_percentage_changes with a drop of more than 8%. If no such update is made, resolves NO.
If Wikipedia becomes unreliable during this time (i.e. the article is abandoned, removed, or Wikipedia's reliability as a source comes into serious question), I will resolve this using my own assessment. I do not expect this to happen, and if it does, I do not expect my resolution to be controversial.
According to the aforementioned Wikipedia table, this would have resolved YES for only 7 years in history, i.e. 1929, 1932, 1933, 1937, 1987, 2008, and 2020.
Since I believe that the resolution of this market will be very objective, I may participate in it.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ130 | |
| 2 | Ṁ100 | |
| 3 | Ṁ85 | |
| 4 | Ṁ56 | |
| 5 | Ṁ37 |
@MP According to market pricing of the VIX, we should expect daily price moves to have a standard deviation of 2% (and a mean of 0% by the pricing of the S&P itself). i.e an 8% move would be a 4-sigma event.
@NicholasCharette73b6 (although note that the VIX is only measuring implied volatility for the next 30 days, not the whole year.