Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the candidate who finishes in first place (receives the highest number of votes) in the South Carolina Special Republican Primary for U.S. Senate held on August 11, 2026, receives 50.0% or more of the total votes cast. If the leading candidate receives less than 50.0% of the vote, this market will resolve to NO.

• Source of Truth: Official certified election results published by the South Carolina State Election Commission. If official certification is delayed, reputable media outlets (e.g., the Associated Press) may be used to resolve the market once a race call is made and final unofficial tallies are near 100% reporting.

• Runoff Clause: Under South Carolina law, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates advance to a runoff election (scheduled for August 25, 2026). This market resolves solely based on the vote percentages of the initial August 11, 2026 primary. The results of any subsequent runoff will not be factored into the resolution.

• Postponement: If the primary is postponed, the market will resolve based on the first round of the rescheduled special Republican primary.

Background

Following the death of incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11, 2026, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham's sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to temporarily fill the vacant seat.

Because Lindsey Graham had already won the June 2026 Republican primary prior to his passing, state law mandated a special Republican primary to select the replacement nominee for the November 3, 2026 general election.

The August 11 special primary features a crowded field of candidates, including interim Senator Darline Graham Nordone, U.S. Representatives Ralph Norman and Russell Fry, and former Governor Mark Sanford. Because South Carolina requires a candidate to secure more than 50% of the vote to win a primary outright, a multi-candidate field makes a runoff highly likely. This market predicts whether the leading candidate in the first round can secure at least 50.0% of the vote.

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