Resolution criteria

• YES: This market will resolve to YES if former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is formally executed by Syrian authorities in accordance with the death sentence handed down to him. The execution must be verified by multiple credible international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, or BBC).

• NO: This market will resolve to NO if Bashar al-Assad dies of any other cause (such as natural causes, illness, suicide, or an assassination not officially sanctioned as a formal judicial execution), or if his sentence is legally commuted, overturned, or pardoned.

Background

On August 11, 2026, the Fourth Criminal Court in Damascus sentenced ousted dictator Bashar al-Assad and his younger brother, Maher al-Assad, to death in absentia. The court convicted them of war crimes and crimes against humanity—including premeditated murder, torture, and arbitrary detention—stemming from the violent crackdown on protests and the subsequent 14-year civil war.

Assad has lived in exile in Moscow under Russian asylum since his regime was overthrown by rebel forces in December 2024. The carrying out of his death sentence remains highly dependent on his potential capture, extradition, or a change in his asylum status in Russia.

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