Will the WHO declare a monkeypox Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2022?

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resolved Jul 23

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predicted NO

Arb: https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-who-declare-another-public

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/23/health/monkeypox-who-intl/index.html resolves YES

Payout if NO M$684 It is not SO certain

WHO emergency committee is meeting again after recommending against, PHEIC recommendation is pretty likely in this situation.

Zero deaths and the only way to catch it is triple digit male-male partners Basically 1/10,000th as important as automobile safety or air pollution. Non-event.

For what it's worth, more and more cases of non-men infected/infected who did not have sex recently are being reported

The very limited set of the population in which this virus circulates is "inconvenient". It would basically be eliminated sans men having sex with hundreds of men ("not that there's anything wrong with that"), and the woke public health establishment isn't about to declare bathhouses a public emergency. Six events were declared PHEIC between 2007 and 2020: the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, Ebola (West African outbreak 2013-2015, outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo 2018-2020), poliomyelitis (2014 to present), Zika (2016) and COVID-19 (2020 to present).

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