Will monkeypox appear to be a seasonal illness, with more occurrence in summer than winter, by the end of 2024?
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At the end of 2024 I will look over monkeypox data released by CDC for the two preceding years (Jan. 2023-Dec. 2024).

https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html

If there are noticeably more cases in the warm summer months (May-Sept.) than the cold winter months (Nov.-March), this resolves YES; otherwise, NO.

If data are not available for those two years, this resolves N/A.

If comparable data are available from other rich Western countries with good record-keeping, I may take those into account as well.

I'm being deliberately vague about the precise definition of "noticeably more". I'm looking for more than mere statistical significance; I'm looking for a trend so obvious that you can clearly see it from the numbers. If this becomes contentious, I'd be open to discussion


Update Jan 2023: If the outbreak ends worldwide, then this resolves NO.

If there are no cases in rich Western countries but there are cases elsewhere, I will resolve on the best available data.

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I would argue that if there is no data for summer months of 2023 and for all of 2024 is because the outbreak is over and thus it was not a seasonal illness. What do you think @Boklam?

@egroj Sure, that sounds reasonable. (I originally planned to resolve N/A in that case, but no human users have YES shares in this market anyway, so I won't upset anyone.)

But: if there are no data from rich Western countries with good record-keeping, I may consider data from other countries as well.

So: If the outbreak ends worldwide, no more cases, then this resolves NO.

If the outbreak ends in rich countries but continues elsewhere, I will look for the best-available data from elsewhere, and resolve based on that.

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