Will the WHO declare a monkeypox pandemic in 2022?

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Ṁ3215

resolved Jan 1

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predicted NO

"Will the WHO declare a monkeypox pandemic in 2022?"

getting while the getting's good

It's been declared a "public health emergency of international concern", which fits the definition of pandemic pretty well. Is that enough for resolution?

predicted NO

@horse Nope, 'pandemic' is a separate designation. I had a separate PHEIC market to distinguish the two: https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-who-declare-a-monkeypox-pu

nope

22% seems high on historical priors, but this is a mostly instrumental bet to (a) calibrate my priors via loss pain if I am too trigger-happy on calling wolf w/ global crises, and (b) add some urgency to taking seriously early. hope to lose this bet

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