Will Joe Biden literally run in 2024?
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135
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resolved Oct 26
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Joe Biden runs in 2024, with both feet off the ground.

Apr 13, 11:00am: Will Joe Biden run in 2024? → Will Joe Biden literally run in 2024?

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bought Ṁ500 YES

In particular, this screenshot shows both feet (very slightly) off the ground

Here's the frame in context of the previous and subsequent frames:

bought Ṁ795 YES

@DanielEth He even does the head down arms rev up as he's preparing to change from walk-mode to run-mode. This looks like running to me!

@DanielEth here's a slightly higher quality gif of the frames in question. I'm convinced

@DanielEth I'm convinced! Well done!

@DanielEth no effing way

bought Ṁ100 YES

Biden literally run in the Seth Meyers 10th year anniversary. This market should resolve to YES.

@MP I just watched the intro - he did pump his arms but it looked more like a speedwalk to me. Did he run at a later point in the program?

@NcyRocks he seems to have both feet in the air when the camera is still in the audience

This market is about 2024.
I'm wasting my life.

"He was seen walking back to his seat unassisted and later jogging back to his motorcade when the ceremony ended." - Joe Biden 'fine' after fall on stage in Colorado (bbc.com) (June 1 2023)
Unfortunately I haven't been able to find video or pictures of this.
However I did find a video where he jogs for about a second and a half, from September. Unfortunately we can't see his feet, but based on his gait it appears that both feet are off the ground in this frame.

predicted YES

@TiredCliche I would bet it up to 100 but apparently there is room for disagreement, as Bing emphatically disagrees with me.

@TiredCliche Good old Bing, insisting that June 2022 was 2 months ago...
I haven't seen the video, but that looks like it's probably a run to me. Seems he runs more regularly than this market assumed. I don't know if I'd bet up to 100, though!

predicted YES

@NcyRocks It's at 1:42, just as "artificial intelligence" is mentioned. None of this is a coincidence, because nothing is ever a coincidence.

@TiredCliche Oof, hard to tell. I guess this would probably suffice for YES, but it'd be the absolute bare minimum! If it ends up being this close of a call, I'd probably run a poll or something.

predicted YES

@NcyRocks I know. That goddamn zoom out to show his feet just as he stops feels like I'm being deliberately trolled.
Still looking for other footage, especially from the June event. Maybe C-Span will have something.

predicted YES

predicted YES

@NcyRocks Biden will have to do this again in 2024 for this market to resolve YES, right?

@FlorisvanDoorn I'm such a dumbass.

@FlorisvanDoorn Right. I've used a loose definition of "running in 2024" for some of my political markets (counting the whole 2024 election cycle), but this one is strictly about whether Biden will run in 2024, the calendar year.

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