Will Joe Biden literally run in 2024?
104
721
1.8k
Dec 31
49%
chance

Resolves YES if Joe Biden runs in 2024, with both feet off the ground.

Apr 13, 11:00am: Will Joe Biden run in 2024? → Will Joe Biden literally run in 2024?

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bought Ṁ100 YES

Biden literally run in the Seth Meyers 10th year anniversary. This market should resolve to YES.

@MP I just watched the intro - he did pump his arms but it looked more like a speedwalk to me. Did he run at a later point in the program?

@NcyRocks he seems to have both feet in the air when the camera is still in the audience

sold Ṁ1,412 of YES

This market is about 2024.
I'm wasting my life.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

"He was seen walking back to his seat unassisted and later jogging back to his motorcade when the ceremony ended." - Joe Biden 'fine' after fall on stage in Colorado (bbc.com) (June 1 2023)
Unfortunately I haven't been able to find video or pictures of this.
However I did find a video where he jogs for about a second and a half, from September. Unfortunately we can't see his feet, but based on his gait it appears that both feet are off the ground in this frame.

predicts YES

@TiredCliche I would bet it up to 100 but apparently there is room for disagreement, as Bing emphatically disagrees with me.

@TiredCliche Good old Bing, insisting that June 2022 was 2 months ago...
I haven't seen the video, but that looks like it's probably a run to me. Seems he runs more regularly than this market assumed. I don't know if I'd bet up to 100, though!

predicts YES

@NcyRocks It's at 1:42, just as "artificial intelligence" is mentioned. None of this is a coincidence, because nothing is ever a coincidence.

@TiredCliche Oof, hard to tell. I guess this would probably suffice for YES, but it'd be the absolute bare minimum! If it ends up being this close of a call, I'd probably run a poll or something.

predicts YES

@NcyRocks I know. That goddamn zoom out to show his feet just as he stops feels like I'm being deliberately trolled.
Still looking for other footage, especially from the June event. Maybe C-Span will have something.

predicts YES

predicts YES

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@NcyRocks Biden will have to do this again in 2024 for this market to resolve YES, right?

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@FlorisvanDoorn I'm such a dumbass.

@FlorisvanDoorn Right. I've used a loose definition of "running in 2024" for some of my political markets (counting the whole 2024 election cycle), but this one is strictly about whether Biden will run in 2024, the calendar year.

Will Elon musk in 2023?

bought Ṁ15 of YES

@ForrestTaylor Good to see he's staying active

Anyone know what the base rate is for Biden running? Did he run in 2022?

Will this market resolve if he jumps? How far apart do the feet need to be when he takes stride

@Gen It’ll probably end up being a “know it when I see it” situation, but a standing jump won’t suffice; he must be moving. I don’t see any reason to specify a distance that his feet should be apart.

This was an April Fool's market. He's maybe a bit old to run.

@NcyRocks Can you edit the title with that? This question keeps showing up in the related markets and I have to remember that it's from April 1 lol

I considered leaving it as-is as a reminder to read the description, but after thinking it over I decided I don't like misleading titles hanging around. I haven't made the April Fool's thing explicit in the question but I think it's clear enough?

@NcyRocks thanks. Yeah as a general rule I believe the community norm is that misleading titles are bad and should not be allowed (with some leeway for jokes)