Will I catch COVID by April?
12
100Ṁ1405
resolved Apr 2
Resolved
NO
I live in Auckland, New Zealand with 4 other people. I work remotely, as do 2/4 of my cohabitants. We've all had 3 Pfizer shots. None of us has tested positive before, nor anyone we know locally. Feb 11, 10:19am: By default, this will resolve NO. A positive test or my displaying symptoms while another member of my household has COVID will resolve YES.
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I mean, there's less than 3 weeks to go now. The peak seems to have passed and ~7% of the population has caught it.
Oops - I thought I put that in the description! My bad. Basically, I'll resolve YES if I test positive (or maybe if I display symptoms while someone in my household has tested positive, but that will almost certainly mean a positive test). It's possible that I could be asymptomatic and catch COVID without knowing, but it's unlikely since everyone in NZ who's been in contact with a known case has to isolate and get tested. Everyone in my household (who'd probably catch it at the same time) would also have to be unsymptomatic, as would everyone at the time and place I caught it. Frankly, I'm okay with that resolving NO.
Question : How will you determine if you caught COVID? it is possible to be asymtomatic IIRC.
Yeah that was my thinking as well, even though it does sound a bit pompous to be talking about yourself in third person. 🤣 Glad at least someone realizes the rationale behind it!
On a meta note, I see now that I probably shouldn't have called myself "I" in the title - it's probably fine this once, but if enough other people want to make their own market like this one, there could be a bunch of duplicate titles that aren't necessarily duplicate markets.
No judgment! Just really interesting to compare my own preconceptions with folks from elsewhere
We seem to be at the start of our Omicron wave, but it's early days: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-current-cases#daily-cases We're also pretty highly vaxed (95% have 2 doses), but we seem to be slow on our booster uptake (~40%). (And to be honest, I was more keen to try out Manifold than to put a lot of thought into my prior probability, so my 15% wasn't super thought-out!)
Wait, y'all have covid in New Zealand? 🤣 If you're at 15% (albeit until April) maybe I need to bump up my odds: https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-david-test-positive-for-covid

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