Will Helion achieve Q>1 deuterium-tritium fusion before 2025?
13
89
Ṁ947Ṁ230
Dec 31
19%
chance
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From https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-232: "Speaking of turning money into big positive impacts on the future, Sam Altman writes in to say he enjoyed the recent book review of The Future Of Fusion Energy, and that he predicts Helion (the fusion startup he’s a leading investor in) has a 85% chance of Q > 1 D-T fusion by 2024, and a 65% chance of Q > 1 D-He3 fusion by 2026."
They didn't manage it in 2024, but maybe Altman meant by the end of 2024?
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