Will Nathan Young (me) be responsible for any scandal by 2024?

910Ṁ4914

resolved Feb 21

Resolved

ALL

This resolves "Yes" if I am the instigator or conspirator in a significant scandal of any kind (eg fraud, bullying, harassment, whatever) . I'll resolve yes if I am convinced. If you don't trust me to resolve right, then make your own market.

Also I actively encourage anyone who thinks they have bad information about me to trade on this market and discuss with others. But please attempt to be accurate.

I feel that if you make scandal markets you should add your own name to the list

Feb 28, 4:03pm: ~~Will I be responsible for any scandal by 2024?~~ → Will Nathan Young (me) be responsible for any scandal by 2024?

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How prone are you to scandalmaking? Are you often abreast of or adjacent to scandals, at least? Do you aspire to scandalous behaviour?

A crumb more context, pls.

(Also, going on vibes and my own disproportionate personal interest in stories of scandalry, I want to bet Yes)

Any progress? XD

@firstuserhere Yes.

https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/why-was-sam-altman-fired-mod-free-r#hdkvDgy6nuDJ2ioWff3y

Also if you think I have done something bad, feel free to write it here and I'll tell you whether I think it meets the criteria. I think I have done things I regret that I wouldn't call scandalous.

I am increasingly worried that these markets may cause a scandal.

predictedNO

@NathanpmYoung Just imagine if any of the many people that claim to have predicted SBF might a bad actor would have made a large anonymous prediction...

Maybe most would write it off, but at least the signal would be there.

predictedNO

@NathanpmYoung Also - I'm not sure if you can 'transfer' market ownership, but if so you might consider doing so here. I would not be very incentivized to bet yes on this market knowing that you are the creator.

Happy to create one if there's no way to transfer.

predictedYES

@CarsonGale Feel free to create one. Though I think if everyone thought I should resolve yes and I resolved no then that would be pretty disastrous for me regardless.