Who runs Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe) on twitter? v2
15
144
resolved Aug 24
50%56%
Frances Lorenz
45%15%
I know there are two people but I don't know who they are
5%0.4%
I know there are three people but I don't know who they are
8%
Julain Hazell
0.8%
Max Alexander
0.0%
Stephen Clare
1.9%
Dustin Moskovitz
13%
Geetha Jeyapragasan
0.2%
Nathan Young
1.6%

Who comes up with the tweets?

This market resolves if at any time I become 95% confident that we know all the people who generate the ideas for the account.

If I become 95% confident and the person or people are not included as answers I will add them, leave the market for as long as I feel is funny and then resolve it.

If I become 95% confident of one person but don’t know they are the only one then Ill wait until the market closes then resolve.

The resolution is therefore any of the people whose ideas get posted roughly weekly.

unlike the other market, if we know it's n people but not who all are, the market will resolve Proportionally to the people we know and then to "we know there are other admins but not who"


The market cannot resolve negatively.

I may bet on this market.

Dec 7, 11:39am: Who runs Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe) on twitter? → Who runs Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe) on twitter? v2

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I know there are two people but I don't know who they are
bought Ṁ50

@NathanpmYoung If it were to resolve today it would resolve to this and Frances

How is this different from v1? "There are also a set of other conditions to which the market can resolve along with people." seems different, but also highly mysterious, and also I don't understand it.

Sorry I forgot, how about now

@NathanpmYoung Now this market makes sense to me, but I don't understand how v1 resolves in the situation where there are two and one is known (sorry if i have read poorly)

If it’s multiple ppl, including X, then would you pay out evenly to all the correct ppl (including X)?

Would you also pay out to, eg, “I know there are 3 ppl?”

@Alana I think yes it shoudl resolve to "I know it's 3 people but we don't know all 3"

Who runs Qualy the lightbulb (@QualyThe) on twitter? v2, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition