Vitalik funded me to make a Polis-style feature for Manifold and the LessWrong/EA Forum. In Jan 2024, what % of people will say in a twitter poll that this was a good idea?
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Vitalik paid me $130k to build Polis for Manifold and LessWrong/EA forum (more details below). In Jan 2024, I will ask.

"Was it a good idea for @VitalikButerin to pay me $130k to build Pol.is style features for Manifold, LessWrong and the EA forum?"

Answers:

Yes

Probably yes
Probably no
No

This resolves to the % who say yes or probably yes


I may link above or below this poll to work I have done on this.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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Resolution: https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1821642215506243820

Poll here https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1821642215506243820

Some notes:

  • We built a tool, viewpoints.xyz

  • Viewpoints is embeddable in both the EA forum and LessWrong

  • I have had some talks with the LessWrong team about them building something similar.

How's it going?

betting no not as an indictment of your abilities, but merely because I'm on the lesswrong team yet had not heard of this project until now

Godspeed, and am curious how it'll turn out!

Do you have legible outputs so far? https://viewpoints.xyz/ was cool.

Can someone give me a better explanation of what pol.is is?

Given this is Manifold, I wonder if instead of Agree/Disagree/Pass, you could put an exact % agree estimate.

To clarify: „what % of people will say in a twitter poll that this was a good idea„ means what percentage answers either yes or probably yes on the poll, correct?

By the way, this feature sounds amazing and I am looking forward to see it.

This is cool!

Suggestion: link to some example of what pol.is is, the homepage you linked to is just the signup page

I have been meaning to reach out to you because, well, you are the "prediction market question guy" and perhaps I am an aspiring apprentice/protege or something like that, maybe? Idk exactly, but I have been looking into applying to the new Forecasting Research Institute as a part time question creator and some other ideas so I figured I would seek guidance from the guru. Can I find you on discord?

@BTE Sure, or Twitter

Congratulations!

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