The Ozler RCT will report an effect size greater than d = 0.4 for StrongMinds
The Ozler RCT will report an effect size greater than d = 0.4 for StrongMinds
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1kṀ1831resolved Aug 6
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Resolve according to this: https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/what-will-the-effect-size-of-the-oz
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Should resolve negatively:
I was not specific on which effect size would count, but all relevant effect sizes reported by this study are much lower than d = 0.4 - around d = 0.1. I roughly calculate the figures below.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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