"The new tanks made a big difference for Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war" by 2024?
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แน€530
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

In hindsight will we think that the new tanks (any number of Leopard 2 and Abrams or similar) made a big positive difference?

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predicted NO

What needs to occur for this to be resolved as YES or NO?

predicted NO

@zkmtx One might think that the tanks made a big difference simply by holding the line, while others may not think so because there hasn't been a breakthrough

@zkmtx Sure but it's about what we think. I currently dont think they did. Russia didn't make a lot of gains elsewhere.

bought แน€25 of NO

I think this market being totally so forgotten about that it didn't even have meaningful time decay says a lot!

Two questions:

  1. Do you mean the tanks promised now, or any tanks delivered before resolution?

  2. When is the resolution date/until when has the difference to be made? "By 2024" would by "before Jan 1 2024" to me, but the closing date is Jan 1 2025.

@PS How do you feel now?

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung I really can't say. I assume it's too early to tell - I guess we'll see expert assessments of the effect over the coming weeks and months, in the course/aftermath of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. And then you'll have to decide what a "big" difference is :)