In a year, public knowledge suggest there was serious bad behaviour in the activities Protect Our Future PAC? [Resolves to my judgement of public knowledge]
8
60
Ṁ348Ṁ170
resolved Jan 31
Resolved as
12%1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to my credence based on publicly availiable knowledge (including comments of this question)
Feb 17, 12:16pm: In a year, will I think there was serious bad behaviour in the activities Protect Our Future PAC? [Resolves to credence of public knowledge] → In a year, public knowledge suggest there was serious bad behaviour in the activities Protect Our Future PAC? [Resolves to my judgement of public knowledge]
Get Ṁ600 play money
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ7 | |
2 | Ṁ7 | |
3 | Ṁ3 | |
4 | Ṁ2 |
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?
61% chance
By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?
2% chance
In 2024, how confident will I be that the Wytham Abbey purchase was better than what the money would otherwise be used for, given the information that there was at the time?
55% chance
Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?
13% chance
Will the Charity Commission's statutory inquiry into Effective Ventures UK (EVF) result in a public report finding significant misconduct and/or mismanagement by 12/2025?
8% chance
Will >5% of >2 FTX political donations received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back?
26% chance
There will be a major morality scandal around a top English language pingpong announcer before 2041
40% chance
Will it be shown Ronald C Kessler committed academic misconduct by 2040?
36% chance
Will substantial evidence emerge by 2025 that the FTX Future Fund team had strong suspicions of fraudulent activities at FTX before November 2022?
2% chance
Will the Effective Altruism movement suffer a scandal more damaging than the FTX crash by the end of 2024?
9% chance