China claims the US has sent 10+ high altitude balloons over china since Jan 2022. What is the reality, as of 2024, or me becoming confident?
6
15
resolved Jan 19
29%
1+ high altitude balloons that we aren't confident are spy balloons
17%
1+ spy balloons (mutually exclusive with high altitude balloons only)
12%
No high altitude/spy balloons without permission
41%
Uncertain

"China said on Monday that U.S. high altitude balloons had flown over its airspace without permission more than 10 times since the beginning of 2022, drawing a swift denial from Washington." Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-us-flew-more-than-10-high-altitude-balloons-over-chinese-airspace-2023-02-13/

What is true here?


This resolve to all answers I am 95% confident of:

  • There were some high altitude balloons that we aren't confident are spy ballons without permission (eg the US government admits this or the Chinese government/other actor provides conclusive proof)

  • There were some spy balloons (eg the US government admits this or the Chinese government/other actor provides conclusive proof)

  • There were no high altitude/spy ballons without permission (eg US government provides conclusive proof)

  • I am uncertain

Note the first two options cannot both resolve

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