Will Francis still be the pope by the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets

Will Francis still be the pope by the end of 2023?

31

closes Dec 31

87%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If Francis must remain pope of the Catholic Church until the end of 2023

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Savio Makbought Ṁ10 of YES(edited)

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
Quick google search of chance of death of a 86 year old male gives 12%

Spongpad sold Ṁ6 YES at 87%

Svenbonne bought Ṁ20 NO from 89% to 87%

Mick Bransfield bought Ṁ100 YES from 87% to 89%

Spongpad sold Ṁ38 YES from 88% to 87%

Spongpad bought Ṁ17 YES at 88%

Bruno Neira bought Ṁ10 YES at 88%

WXTJ bought Ṁ14 YES from 87% to 88%

Conrad Getty sold Ṁ15 YES from 88% to 87%

FionBear bought Ṁ10 YES from 87% to 88%

Conrad Getty bought Ṁ50 YES at 87%

Nikola created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 96%

Nikola sold Ṁ100 YES from 88% to 87%

Spongpad bought Ṁ28 YES at 88%

Conrad Getty bought Ṁ175 YES from 84% to 88%

MrLame1001 bought Ṁ25 YES at 84%

William D'Alessandro bought Ṁ100 YES from 80% to 84%

Remi vise la mire bought Ṁ10 NO from 82% to 80%

Fion bought Ṁ10 YES at 82%

Alex Paton bought Ṁ5 NO at 82%

Fiery Koala bought Ṁ20 NO from 86% to 82%

J-P bought Ṁ10 YES from 85% to 86%

pain bought Ṁ10 YES at 85%

Sky bought Ṁ10 YES at 85%

Nikola bought Ṁ15 YES from 84% to 85%

Nikola bought Ṁ80 YES from 81% to 84%

Robert Cousineau bought Ṁ40 YES from 79% to 81%

Savio Mak bought Ṁ10 YES at 79%

Odoacre bought Ṁ25 YES from 78% to 79%

Alex Paton bought Ṁ5 NO from 79% to 78%

Juan bought Ṁ100 YES from 76% to 79%

Juan bought Ṁ10 YES from 75% to 76%

Ernie Bornheimer sold Ṁ12 NO from 71% to 75%

Juan bought Ṁ10 YES from 70% to 71%

WXTJ bought Ṁ15 YES from 68% to 70%

Juan bought Ṁ10 YES from 66% to 68%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ28 YES at 66% (cancelled)

Trung Bui bought Ṁ50 NO from 78% to 60%

Fuchsia filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 79%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 YES at 78% (cancelled)

Fuchsia bought Ṁ10 NO from 80% to 77%

hbkk bought Ṁ10 YES from 79% to 80%

Radicalia bought Ṁ10 YES from 78% to 79%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 YES at 78% (cancelled)

Ernie Bornheimer bought Ṁ10 NO from 80% to 75%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ5 NO at 80% (cancelled)

Juan bought Ṁ50 YES from 74% to 82%

archvenison bought Ṁ10 YES from 72% to 74%

Nostradamnedus bought Ṁ10 YES from 66% to 72%

Holger Bähren bought Ṁ20 YES from 50% to 66%

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