Will Tyler Cowen consider Richard Hanania to have fallen in status as a result of the events in Russia-Ukraine?

Richard Hanania is a rising star in conservative intellectual circles, Maniford Markets user, and author of a new book on foreign policy, Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy, which I haven't read but has gotten a lot of good reviews (including from Tyler Cowen — "This is a book that should revolutionize a field, though I doubt if it will.") Hanania and his book are very anti traditional US foreign establishment, and has been critical of how the US (and Ukraine) have handled the run up to the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, and been less critical of Russia. More details on the book/his argument: https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/new-book-public-choice-theory-and?utm_source=url I'm curious as to whether his reputation will take a hit as a result of the events in Russia-Ukraine (and his reaction to them, which seems to be fairly pro Russia), and am proposing to have Tyler Cowen evaluate this, similar to his status or winner and loser articles here: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/11/trump-winning-rises-falls-status.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/11/this-elections-winners-and-losers.html Tyler can use whatever he wants to evaluate this, including Hanania's book, tweets etc. Although this question is about TC's judgement specifically, I generally respect his opinion, and view it as a good proxy for whether Hanania *should* rise or fall in status as a result of these events + Hanania's reaction to them. Here is how I will resolve this market: In two weeks, after trading closes I will email Tyler Cowen with details on this market and ask him whether he considers Hanania to have fallen in status (or to be a "loser") of the events in Russia-Ukraine. If he doesn't reply, I'll follow up once by email and once by tweet. If I still don't hear from him, I'll resolve NA. YES - Cowen thinks Hanania has fallen in status/is a loser of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. NO - Cowen doesn't Hanania has significantly fallen in status. I'll also give Tyler the option of resolving to a PROB. Feb 25, 12:03pm: Hanania's twitter: https://twitter.com/RichardHanania Feb 25, 4:21pm: In my email to Tyler I will also request he does NOT look at the market results before he makes his decision so that he's not influenced one way or the other. I will send him this description.

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