If Biden drops out, which reason will be closest to the one he or his team gives?
86
Ṁ1kṀ14kresolved Jul 29
100%91%
He wants to pass the torch
0.7%
He doesn't think he is best to win (e.g. cites H2H polls)
0.7%
He lost the confidence of his party (e.g. cites electeds)
0.3%
He won't be able to raise money (e.g. cites donors)
1.0%
He lost the confidence of (dem) voters (e.g. cites opinion polls)
0.7%
He wants to retire / spend time with his family
5%
Admission of health or age issues
0.2%
This has been his plan all along
0.3%
Other (last resort)
Selecting only one option, based on the primary answer Biden gives when he drops out and in the week following. If Biden himself doesn't answer, I'll default to his family and then close team. Only if no public reasons are given will I consider leaks.
I prefer less platitudinal options - e.g. if "I have X disease so want to pass the torch," that would be health reason, not "pass the torch." Only selecting Other if it really doesn't fit with any listed option.
Given some subjectivity, I won't bet. N/A if he never drops out.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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