How often will each opening be played in the 2024 Chess world championship [see rules].
8
126
1.1K
Apr 26
61%
1. d4
60%
Ruy Lopez - Morphy 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 a6
57%
1. e4
41%
Sicilian 1. e4 c5
38%
Ruy Lopez - Berlin 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 Nf6
37%
Nimzo-Indian 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4
34%
Italian 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb4
30%
King's Indian 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6
28%
1. Nf3
27%
1. c4
26%
Grünfeld 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5
25%
Catalan 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.g3
23%
Caro-Kann 1.e4 c6
22%
Queen's Gambit 1.d4 d5 2. c4
17%
French Defense 1. e4 e6

Each resolves to 20% per game that the opening is played in the 2024 World Chess Championship match EXCEPT for the 1-move openings like 1.e4 which get 10% per game instead.

Tiebreaks are not included.


Transpositions count (that is any game where the position is the same after the right number of moves counts, even if the moves come in a different order).

Add options but be sure to list the moves to remove ambiguity (or at least the last move if there are too many e.g. you can do "Marshall Attack 8 c3 d5"). The options do not need to be mutually exclusive, we can add sub-variations.

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bought Ṁ15 King's Indian 1.d4 N... YES

I think "King's Indian" might be a misleading name, if I understand the rules right, since 1d4 Nf6 2c4 g6 is also the standard move order to go into a Grünfeld. Maybe should be renamed to "King's Indian/Grünfeld".
With the current names/definitions, it seems like we must have P(King's Indian)>P(Grünfeld), since it's extremely unlikely that we'll see something like 1c4 Nf6 2 Nc3 d5 3 d4 g6.

"Transpositions count (that is any game where the position is the same after the right number of moves counts, even if the moves come in a different order)."

What does this mean if the move order e.g. is 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 d5 4.g3? This transposes to a Catalan, but taken literally, I would say that "Catalan" as specified here resolves as no, since we don't transpose to the position after 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.g3. Is that what is intended?

@BenjaminTereick yes that's right. I want to make the resolution clear and objective, even if this doesn't perfectly capture traditional categorization of openings. I don't want to have to decide if 1. c4 Nf6 2. Nf3 c6 3. d4 g6 4. Nc3 Bg7 5. g3 d5 is a "Queen's Gambit" or a "King's Indian" or both, for instance.

bought Ṁ20 1. e4 YES

Including tiebreaks?

@Weezing Good call, not including tiebreaks.