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Did some sleuthing. Used a 3rd-party brier score calculator that works on any given Manifolder data. 0.17 is moderate-to-high (mine is 0.18 so no shade).

brier.fyi (formerly calibration.city), made by a Manifolder, uses this chart implying B could be no higher than 0.0320, but that's a letter grade meant for a site as a whole rather than an individual user.

so I went digging into the old manifold code. they still have the calibration files.

B is... -2.5?? but brier scores are between 0 and 1 so something else is going on.

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uhhh so it looks like you get points for being wrong, and then those are made negative. and iirc they only used "recent" resolutions (~100?) here, though I'm not seeing it in this function. her calibration chart does indicate a lot of misses by a fair margin.

I'm no computer that can crunch all this math with thousands of data points nigh instantly, but I'm gonna handwave it. If someone wants to run it and prove me wrong, feel free to, but I'm resolving NO. (disclaimer: I have a YES position)

@Nadja_L wanna do something about this market?

I guess a smarter thing to do would be to ask some Manifold guys how calibration was calculated (or maybe it is already somewhere, idk, I can't find it in the FAQ) and then calculate it manually. If it fails, then NA

Calibration is removed now. N/A I guess?

Resolving “yes” would be a dumb bitch thing to do. So this is impossible to win.

Hmm, I definitely agree with the first sentence, but the second deserves clarification! ❤

There is no doubt that I will still be a dumb bitch at the end of this year! BUT, this market isn't about whether I will stop being a dumb bitch, but whether I will "stop being a [sic] such a dumb bitch in 2024." So I contend that I could resolve this market YES without contradiction, because I specify precisely the margin I must stop being such a dumb bitch along, provided my calibration score which is found here increases to a B or better.

Yeah, I didn’t read the description. I bought because the title was funny.

Not a great plan for improving my calibration. But reading is for nerds

you're doing great. to do better, go to every Jimmy Carter market and bet that he won't die

I got a market where people compile free money markets:
/Bayesian/free-mana-will-20-free-profit-oppor

I'm sure many people around you appreciate you for the dumb bitch you are and aspire to be a dumb bitch like you one day. ❤

You will not stop because you are not dumb

I think this is way overvalued right now: I have the majority of my manifold net worth staked on Contrapoints having a video coming out in the next 6 hours. If that doesn't take my calibration, I don't know what will.

Update: My calibration grade has shockingly risen from a C+ to a B for reasons I do not fully comprehend. However, I am still pretty dumb, so my calibration grade may still fall!

I believe in you!

You could probably easily accomplish this by only betting easy self resolving markets. Bit boring though.

@Toby96 I’m too dumb and akratic to do that very smart thing!

I've been dumb my whole life; hard to change that but good luck!