If Donald Trump wins the Republican primary and claims fraud still took place the market will be resolved Yes
If Donald Trump loses and claims election fraud against any other opponent the market will be resolved Yes
Anything else will be resolved as No (I.e. If he doesn't run or wins/loses and doesn't claim fraud)
Any hinting at fraud before the primary/primaries takes place will not be considered accusations of fraud until after the primary takes place.
If lawsuits that specifically target voter fraud are filed the market will be resolved Yes (I.e typical post election lawsuits aren't considered accusations of voter fraud)
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People are also trading
Do his claims that folks who weren’t supposed to vote, voting, count?
““I think they had 4,000 Democrats before October 6th, they already voted. Now, they’re only voting because they want me to look as bad as possible, because, if you remember, we won in 2016, and if you really remember — and if you want to play it straight —- we also won in 2020,” he said. Trump, despite his delusions, actually lost his bid for re-election in 2020. “
This one is hard. The process he’s referring to is completely legal so I’m not sure what the “voter fraud” component of his claim would be.
I don’t think this is a claim of voter fraud.
@AndrewBrown I think it just comes down to whether or not trump landslides the primaries.
@AndrewBrown He's deemed every election he's been in fraudulent... but those were all close races. This time he might be winning by an amount where it doesn't even make sense to say the opponent cheated.
From The Economist:
Haley 4 points behind Trump in NH
https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1743025742093394123?s=46
Trump accuses GOP rivals of planning to cheat in caucus
https://www.meidastouch.com/news/trump-accuses-gop-rivals-of-planning-to-cheat-in-ia-caucus
@RalphLastly Any person that has declared to be running for the candidacy in the Republican Party primary.
@JosephNoonan I believe he did the "I will accept the outcome if I win" thing but never explicitly said it was rigged against him. I could be wrong though I didn't look at it.
@NGK He did explicitly accuse Ted Cruz of stealing the election: https://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/trump-cruz-stole-iowa-tweet-deleted-218674
