Will Donald Trump claim election fraud against opponents in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
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59k
Nov 5
11%
chance
Trump accuses GOP rivals of planning to cheat in caucus https://www.meidastouch.com/news/trump-accuses-gop-rivals-of-planning-to-cheat-in-ia-caucus
Haley 4 points behind Trump in NH https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1743025742093394123?s=46
Donald Trump wins Iowa Caucus
  • If Donald Trump wins the Republican primary and claims fraud still took place the market will be resolved Yes

  • If Donald Trump loses and claims election fraud against any other opponent the market will be resolved Yes

  • Anything else will be resolved as No (I.e. If he doesn't run or wins/loses and doesn't claim fraud)

  • Any hinting at fraud before the primary/primaries takes place will not be considered accusations of fraud until after the primary takes place.

  • If lawsuits that specifically target voter fraud are filed the market will be resolved Yes (I.e typical post election lawsuits aren't considered accusations of voter fraud)

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Do his claims that folks who weren’t supposed to vote, voting, count?

““I think they had 4,000 Democrats before October 6th, they already voted. Now, they’re only voting because they want me to look as bad as possible, because, if you remember, we won in 2016, and if you really remember — and if you want to play it straight —- we also won in 2020,” he said. Trump, despite his delusions, actually lost his bid for re-election in 2020. “

bought Ṁ1,138 NO

Since he's officially the nominee, will this be resolved soon?

I’m going to keep it open until the day before the general election. Which is the day I always had this market close at.

only when he loses

This seems like free money

predicts YES

@AndrewBrown I think it just comes down to whether or not trump landslides the primaries.

@AndrewBrown He's deemed every election he's been in fraudulent... but those were all close races. This time he might be winning by an amount where it doesn't even make sense to say the opponent cheated.

From The Economist:

predicts YES

How are we defining opponents?

@RalphLastly Any person that has declared to be running for the candidacy in the Republican Party primary.

@NGK Understood, thank you.

Didn't he do this even in 2016?

predicts YES

@JosephNoonan I believe he did the "I will accept the outcome if I win" thing but never explicitly said it was rigged against him. I could be wrong though I didn't look at it.

predicts YES

@JosephNoonan I believe he did it in 2016 when he lost to Ted Cruz in the Iowa Caucus.

@BTE Yeah, that's what I was referring to.

predicts YES

@NGK He did explicitly accuse Ted Cruz of stealing the election: https://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/trump-cruz-stole-iowa-tweet-deleted-218674

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