If Donald Trump wins the Republican primary and claims fraud still took place the market will be resolved Yes

If Donald Trump loses and claims election fraud against any other opponent the market will be resolved Yes

Anything else will be resolved as No (I.e. If he doesn't run or wins/loses and doesn't claim fraud)

Any hinting at fraud before the primary/primaries takes place will not be considered accusations of fraud until after the primary takes place.

If lawsuits that specifically target voter fraud are filed the market will be resolved Yes (I.e typical post election lawsuits aren't considered accusations of voter fraud)