Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the candidate who officially wins the Louisiana U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff election on June 27, 2026.

The primary source of truth for resolving this market will be the official election results published by the Louisiana Secretary of State. If official certification is significantly delayed, the market may resolve based on a consensus projection from major national news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ) or reliable tracking on Ballotpedia.

If the election is canceled, postponed past 2026, or if both listed candidates are disqualified, this market will resolve to N/A.

Background

Louisiana's 2026 Senate election utilizes a closed party primary system instead of the state's traditional "jungle primary," following the implementation of House Bill 17. In the first-round primary held on May 16, 2026, U.S. Representative Julia Letlow finished first with 44.8% of the vote, and Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming finished second with 28.3%. Because no candidate secured an outright majority, both advanced to the June 27 runoff. Incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy was eliminated in the first round after placing third with 24.8%. The winner of this runoff will secure the Republican nomination for the general election on November 3, 2026.

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