This market resolves YES if, between market creation and April 1, 2026 (23:59 CET), a sitting head of state or government of an EU member state (e.g. President, Prime Minister) publicly mentions the phrase “Strait of Hormuz.”
The statement must be made by a current EU head of state or government (e.g. Emmanuel Macron, Giorgia Meloni, Olaf Scholz, etc.).
The phrase “Strait of Hormuz” must be explicitly used (not implied or paraphrased).
The mention must appear in a public, verifiable source, such as:
Official government statements or press releases
Speeches or press conferences
Verified social media accounts
Reputable news reporting quoting the leader directly
Does NOT count
Statements by EU officials (e.g. European Commission, EEAS, Kaja Kallas, Ursula von der Leyen)
Statements by ministers or other non-head officials
Indirect references (e.g. “key shipping routes” without naming the Strait)
Mentions outside the specified time window
Resolution NotesIf multiple interpretations arise, resolution will be based on credible mainstream sources.
If a leader uses the phrase in another language, it counts if it clearly refers to “Strait of Hormuz.”
1,000Mar 14: I did not find a clear EU leader / EU official statement mentioning it.
Mar 15: I did not find a clear direct mention in the sources I checked.
Mar 16: Yes. At the Foreign Affairs Council, Kaja Kallas was quoted saying restarting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz was an urgent priority.
Mar 17: Yes. Reuters quoted Kallas saying diplomatic ways had to be found to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
Mar 18: I did not find a fresh official statement with the phrase that day.
Mar 19: Yes. European Council conclusions explicitly referenced acts preventing vessels from entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz, and efforts to ensure freedom of navigation there.
Mar 20: I did not find a clear new mention that day.
Mar 21: Yes. In the G7 foreign ministers’ statement, joined by the EU’s top diplomat, maritime routes “including in the Strait of Hormuz” were explicitly referenced.
Mar 22: Yes. Reuters reported an EU official saying Kallas’ calls with regional counterparts covered the urgent need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Mar 23: Yes. Kallas again referenced discussing how to keep the Strait of Hormuz open in her press conference.
None of these days resolve in YES
Kallas = ❌ does NOT count
EU Council statements = ❌ do NOT count
Foreign ministers (G7) = ❌ do NOT count