I am a teacher. I recently offered to develop a cheating-detection system for my employer. To my surprise, they took me up on it. I have a pitch and demo tentatively scheduled for next week.

Immediately resolves as YES if I learn that my employer has authorized, approved, or assented to an action which is A) intended to address cheating and b) directly informed by the outputs of a system I developed. For example, if a teacher uses the results of the system (provided to them by my employer) to design a seating plan for test takers, this would resolve YES, regardless of whether any cases of cheating are ever decidedly confirmed. Does not immediately resolve YES if I am told that I can do whatever I want with my classes's data on my own time but that the company has no interest in the system.

Immediately resolves as NO if I communicate to my employer that I am unwilling or unable to develop such a system or if my employer communicates to me that they are no longer interested in such a system developed by me.

Some reasons to think I might succeed:

• The bar is relatively low. I don't actually need to catch any cheaters, I just need to develop a method for systematically identifying students who are more likely than normal to have cheated in the past, which is sometimes blatantly obvious.

• I have access to all of the data I would need to conduct such an analysis, and lots of it.

• My employer seems enthusiastic about the project, and provided that I can develop a halfway decent prototype, I think it's likely that it sees some use, even if only as a test run.

Update: I have demo'd a prototype for my supervisors. They were impressed, but they are not authorized to give me all of the data which is required to perform a school-wide analysis; I will need to make do with only my own classes's answer data (I still have the overall answer frequency data that I need to perform the analysis; I just can't analyze students other than my own).

Some reasons to think I will fail:

• I'm a teacher, not a software developer. I'm merely a programming hobbyist and I have never been financially compensated for any programming project I've worked on (nor do I necessarily expect to be compensated for the development component of this project; this is just to give you an idea of my level of experience).

• If there were a significant incentive for my employer to implement the kind of system I'm proposing, they undoubtedly could have attempted to do so by now.

• I do not have a working prototype, and I do not even have a proof of concept. It's entirely possible that when I finally get everything running, I will discover that my proposed methodology is entirely unactionable in practice (e.g. it has abysmal specificity and cannot be deployed due to the high risk of falsely flagging honest test takers as likely cheaters).

Update: I now have a working prototype, and it works well.

I will only buy YES shares, and I will never sell them.