Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if at least one commercial non-stop passenger flight departs from an airport in the United Kingdom and successfully lands (wheels down) at an airport in the Syrian Arab Republic before January 1, 2027 (specifically, on or before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC). Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

Definitions & Rules

• “Non-stop Flight”: The flight must depart from an airport in the UK and land at an airport in Syria with no scheduled or unscheduled intermediate stops.

• “Passenger Flight”: The flight must be a commercial scheduled or charter passenger flight open to the general public or bookable through standard passenger channels.

• Exclusions: Private corporate jets, diplomatic/government flights, military transports, cargo-only flights, medical evacuations (medevac), and strictly humanitarian relief flights are excluded and do not count.

• Execution vs. Scheduling: A scheduled flight that is canceled, turned back mid-air, or diverted to a country outside Syria will not qualify. The flight must successfully complete the journey (wheels down in Syria) prior to December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC.

Sources for Resolution

This market will be resolved based on official airline announcements or verified records from the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) or Syria’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), with supporting evidence from official flight-tracking data from Flightradar24 and FlightAware.

Background

Since 2012, commercial flights between the UK and Syria have been suspended due to the civil war in the country, which lasted from 2011 to 2024. Travelers from the UK wishing to visit Syria have typically flown to nearby cities such as Amman or Beirut, then traveled overland to their destination. However, following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in December 2024 and the subsequent transition of power in Damascus, several European airlines from Germany, the Netherlands, and Romania have resumed direct flights to Syria. The country’s airspace became crucial after the US-Iran conflict began in late February, with nearly 1,200 aircraft transits recorded in May as regional airlines rerouted around closed or war-affected airspace.

This market monitors whether a direct route will successfully operate between the UK and Syria before the end of 2026.