Resolves based on:

Fed rate hike by...?

Fed rate hike by...?

$417,589 has traded on "Fed rate hike by...?" as of June 28, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™

Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve independently to YES or NO based on whether the Federal Reserve increases the interest rate within the specified timeframe.

The primary source of truth is the official announcements and monetary policy implementation notes published on the Federal Reserve Board website.

• July Meeting: Resolves to YES if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the July 28–29, 2026, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of that meeting). Otherwise, this option resolves to NO.

• September Meeting: Resolves to YES if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the September 15–16, 2026, FOMC meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of that meeting). Otherwise, this option resolves to NO.

• October Meeting: Resolves to YES if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the October 27–28, 2026, FOMC meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of that meeting). Otherwise, this option resolves to NO.

If any of the scheduled meetings do not take place within 7 calendar days of their scheduled end date (11:59 PM ET), and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, that specific option will resolve to NO.

Background

Expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted heavily following the appointment of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. While the market anticipated rate cuts or a prolonged hold earlier in 2026, stubborn inflation data and a highly resilient labor market have triggered a hawkish repricing.

Major financial institutions have adjusted their forecasts: Bank of America Global Research projects three 25-basis-point rate hikes in 2026 (occurring at the September, October, and December meetings). Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to begin hiking in September, predicting a total of 50 basis points of increases for the year. Consequently, prediction markets have assigned significant probability to a rate hike occurring as early as the late summer or fall of 2026.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.